A glimpse of Japan’s 40 years of infrastructure construction frenzy: How much space is Japan’s infrastructure compared to Japan?
Japan is the “infrastructure demon” | Monarch Building Source: Guotai Junan Securities Research Station In Tokyo’s endless stream of subway stations, those foreigners who are stunned looking at complex maps often contrast sharply with Japanese people who move quickly on light roads.
▼ The route map at Tokyo Metro Station is actually the subway part. It does not include the JR and private railways, and it is more than Tokyo Metro.
Traveling in all corners of Japan, the three-dimensional road facilities in the city are complete, and even in the relatively remote villages, rail transit can always be found.
All this is inseparable from the infrastructure boom in Japan for more than 40 years.
Guotai Junan’s construction team initially released an in-depth report “Compared with Japan, domestic infrastructure space is still high, leading potential still exists”, leading us to list Japan’s nearly 40 years of global infrastructure and just how big the rail transit facilities arepotential.
01Japan’s Infrastructure Rush 40 years of Tanaka’s ambitions The boom in Japan’s infrastructure began with the successful bid for the 1959 Tokyo Olympics.
In 1960, the National Income Double Plan was approved and combined with multiple economic development policies, it further promoted the migration of the population to cities.
In addition, the “Japanese Islands Reform Theory” put forward by former Japanese Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka has also contributed greatly.
Born in Niigata, Japan’s rural side, Takaaki Tanaka has caused serious concern about the development differences between Tokyo and his hometown. In addition, he was a first-class architect. Therefore, when the LDP president was elected in 1972, he proposed the “Reconstruction of the Japanese Islands””.
▼ Former Japanese Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei put forward the Japanese island reform theory during the participation. Source: Surging News, Guotai Junan Securities Research Tanaka believes that only through the construction of a large-scale transportation network can the gap between rural and urban areas be eliminated.
“We must simultaneously eliminate the ills of overcrowding in cities and oversparse in rural areas. We will implement industrial relocation throughout the country, make full use of wisdom and knowledge, and build new national railroads, highways, and rectify communication networks., It will certainly be able to bridge the gap between urban and rural areas.
“The main measures of the island reconstruction plan include transportation and communication, industrial layout and other data sources:” Reconstruction of the Islands “, etc., Guotai Junan Securities Research, a new land development plan, quickly got those who had to leave their homes in order to work.Of Japanese voters.
During the period from 1960 to 1974, the urbanization construction overlapped with the island reconstruction plan, the successful bid for the Olympic Games, and the rapid population growth and other factors jointly promoted the blowout growth of Japan’s civil and construction demand. The total investment amount from 1960-742.
5 trillion yen increased to 29.
4 trillion yen, an annual growth of nearly 20%.
▼ The growth rate of Japanese construction budget investment in the 1960s reached the highest in nearly 60 years (trillion yen). Source: Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Guotai Junan Securities Research. Although Tanaka stepped down despite the 1974 oil crisis, it is stillThe Liberal Democratic Party maintains a huge and invisible force.
In the following 10 years, the Japanese political community maintained the “no Tanaka Tanaka line”, and the “Reconstruction of the Japanese Islands” program has been going on-this has maintained a high level of prosperity in Japan’s civil construction industry until the Japanese economic bubble burst in 1991Can be polished.
At the beginning of the 1985 “Plaza Agreement”, land prices in Japan showed a trend of foaming, a large amount of funds poured into the real estate market, and the housing construction industry also experienced excessive prosperity.
According to statistics, the area of new house construction in Japan increased rapidly from 200 million square meters in 1985-90.
800 million square meters, an annual increase of 7%; the number of newly started residential buildings increased by 470,000 in just five years, each growth rate in 1987 reached the highest value of nearly 40 years in 23 years.
02 The 40-year infrastructure stimulus in Japan’s infrastructure frenzy was that after the artifacts entered the 1990s, Japan began the “lost two decades”.
As the Japanese economy has faced excessive downward pressure on many occasions, the government has carried out three infrastructure projects to stimulate the underpinning economy.
After the collapse of the Japanese economic bubble in 1991, the Japanese government began to take further measures to strengthen public financial expenditure to promote infrastructure construction to underpin the economy. This round of infrastructure stimulated the growth of GDP to rise to 3 in 1996.
In 1998, the Asian financial crisis broke out, and Japan stepped up its investment in infrastructure again, bringing GDP growth back to 2000 in 2000.
In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out, and Japan’s GDP growth rate dropped sharply to -5 in 2009.
42%, this round of infrastructure construction stimulated GDP growth to pick up to 4 in 2010.
▼ Three large-scale stimulus infrastructures in the “lost two decades” to underpin economic data Source: Wind, Sina Finance, etc. Guotai Junan Securities Research Since 2011, three important events have once again helped the Japanese construction industry boom.
On March 11, 2011, a magnitude nine earthquake struck the Pacific Ocean in northeastern Japan. Demand for infrastructure repairs, reconstruction and housing and construction reconstruction, and reconstruction after the earthquake surged.
At the end of 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched the “Abenomics” policy, which is summarized as three arrows, namely, active financial policy, flexible fiscal policy, and promotion and development of private investment. Infrastructure is the main way to increase government spending.it goes without saying.
The success of Tokyo’s bid for the 天津夜网 2020 Olympic Games in September 2013 has also greatly stimulated the need for a series of public roads, stadiums, etc. to be constructed and repaired.
However, several times of infrastructure stimulus increased the growth of other items such as social security expenditures, and eventually pushed up the Japanese government ‘s debt ratio. The debt balance as a percentage of GDP rose from 69% to 230%, so it lacked the financial foundation to continue stimulating infrastructure.
▼ From 1991 to 2010, the source of the increase in the proportion of Japanese government debt to GDP is from Bloomberg and Guotai Junan Securities Research 03. It is a lesson learned or a model for learning. At present, the per capita occupation and density of Japanese infrastructure are among the world’s leading levels.
Because ground orbit crosses everywhere, Japan is also known as a “country 深圳桑拿网 on orbit”.
As of 2017: Japan’s per capita railway share is about 134 km / million people, which is significantly higher than China’s 91 km / million people; Japan’s per capita road share is about 96 km / 10,000 people, which is significantly more than China’s 34 km /From the perspective of urban rail transit, the per capita holdings of rail transit in Tokyo, Japan are also significantly higher than those of the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in China.
Japan’s infrastructure density is even higher than China’s, even higher than the United States. In 2017, the density of highways in Japan was close to 300 km / 100 km2, and the values in the United States and China were lower than 100/50 km / 100 km2, respectively.
The density of Japan’s railways is about 450 km / 10,000 km2, and the United States and China are about 260/136 km / 10,000 km2.
Along with economic development and urbanization, a large number of outstanding construction companies have also emerged in Japan. When the inflection point of the demographic dividend has gradually arrived, engineering efficiency, technological upgrades, and differentiation of financing advantages have jointly promoted the improvement of industry concentration and gradually formedDacheng Construction, Dalin Formation, Qingshui Construction, and Kashima Construction.
These leaders have four major advantages, ensuring their core position in the Japanese construction market.
Technical advantages: Japanese construction leaders have decades of experience in engineering projects and technology research and development, and they all have their own technology research and development centers, which can focus on research and development of new materials and technologies.
For example, Qingshui Construction set up a research and development center as early as 1944, and has now developed into a large-scale Shimizu Institute of Technology. It has carried out extensive research and development in structural safety, basic engineering, underground engineering, energy development, and earthquake science.explore.
Another example is Kashima Construction, which also has a variety of leading technologies and services, such as the Kashima Reduction Act, Kashima Design, Kashima’s advanced structural control and basic isolation technologies.
▼ The technology advantage of Japanese construction leaders is clearly ahead of other small and medium-sized companies. Data sources: company annual report, company official website, Guotai Junan Securities Research Industry Chain Advantage: Japanese construction leaders cross the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and can provide services in all fields.
For example, Kashima Construction involves a variety of businesses such as civil construction, real estate development and new energy development. Its civil construction business covers many fields such as commercial buildings, stadiums, bridges and tunnels, and can provide design consulting, engineering contracting, and construction management.Alternatives for owner agency, project management, etc.
In addition to the construction industry, the Japanese construction leader also involves other related businesses, which further enhances its comprehensive strength and project undertaking capabilities.
For example, Kashima Construction is involved in the comprehensive development of coastal and coastal industrial areas. It can integrate internal infrastructure business including reclamation, road construction, port construction and other emerging businesses such as renewable resources, nuclear power stations, and ocean development to meet the needs of social development.demand.
Profit advantage: The technology and industrial chain advantages of the leading Japanese construction companies are an important basis for profit advantages.
In addition, cost control is also an important means to polish profit advantages. For example, Kashima Construction actively controls development costs such as prefabricated construction methods and robots through strict cost control, and its profitability indicators have steadily increased since 2014.5.
71% increased to 12.
7%, net margin increased from 1% to 5.
7%, ROE from 3.
8% increased to 15.
Financing advantages: Japanese construction leaders have been working hard to reduce leverage in the past. At present, the average asset-liability ratio is below 65%, which is much lower than other construction companies. Therefore, they have better financing advantages in bank loans and other aspects, which can protect the businessSmooth progress.
04 How far is China’s rail transit overall? Recently, at a press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission once again demonstrated the objective fact of low internal per capita infrastructure stock.
“At present, the overall per capita infrastructure stock is equivalent to 20% -30% of the total in the West, and there are still many shortcomings in infrastructure areas such as transportation, water conservancy, energy, ecological protection, and social livelihood.There is still a lot of room and potential for investment in facilities. ”
In contrast to the current status of track deposits in developed Greater Bay Areas such as Tokyo and New York, there is still huge room for development in domestic track transfer construction.
For example, the 30 million people in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area use nearly 3,000 kilometers for commuting, while the 20 million people in Beijing and Shanghai are only about 700 kilometers.
▼ Tokyo Metropolitan area rail link density is extremely high Data Source: Tokyo Metro Network ▼ Relative density of Shanghai Metro subway Relative data source: 911 Query Details: 1. Per capita railway density and per capita railway holdings, there is still a large deviation.
In 2018, the domestic railway network density was 136 km / 10,000 square kilometers (according to the operating mileage caliber), increasing by 3.
7 km / 10,000 square kilometers, but there are still some gaps from major overseas expansions such as Germany, France, and the United States.
▼ The highest railway density is less than the average (km / 10,000 km2) Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research Note: Using the operating mileage caliber from the perspective of railway per capita holdings, the domestic rate is 94 km / million) Mileage caliber), while the United States, Germany are more than 400, Japan is about 134 km / million people; if the total mileage caliber is carried out.
▼ Per capita railways in the region are less than average (km / 10,000 people). Data sources: National Bureau of Statistics, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research2. In terms of highways, domestic development levels are still lower than overseas accumulation.
In 2018, the total mileage of domestic highways increased by half a year to approximately 4.85 million kilometers in 2018.
5%, ranking third in the world, of which about 14 are highways.
30,000 kilometers ranks first in the world.
However, domestic road density still differs from overseas expectations.
By region, according to statistics from the Industrial Information Network, the east has reached 118 km / 100 km2, but the west is only 27 km / 100 km2.
The per capita possession of domestic highways is about 34 kilometers per 10,000 people, which exceeds that of the United States (over 200), Japan (about 96), and Germany (about 78).
From the perspective of the per capita possession of highways, domestic 103 km / million people are lower than those in the United States (about 307) and Germany (about 105).
▼ Domestic highway density is gradually increasing. Data source: wind, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research ▼ Domestic highway density is still binding. Spatial data source: wind, Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research 05 The gap between east and west has widened. So, domesticIs it necessary for railway and rail transit density to continue to increase?
1. The eastern region still needs pipeline network encryption to gradually establish a new type of urbanization and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The integration of the Yangtze River Delta has been advanced. The domestic urban population has continued to grow, and urban congestion has become the norm.Rail transit can effectively alleviate the pressure of urban congestion and reduce the burden on ground roads.
The eastern region has a developed economy, strong fiscal strength, and controllable debt levels. In particular, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Australian dollars have national-level policy support and a large population. Therefore, they must support the financial foundation and encryption requirements of infrastructure construction.
▼ Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and other eastern coastal areas with strong financial strength Sources of data: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research2, demand for shortcomings in the western region is still from the completion of the planning of the 13th Five-Year Expressway and other infrastructure areas in the province.The remaining gap in the western provinces is still high, so it has caught up with the pressure of planning to catch up with the construction period.
At the same time, the density of infrastructure in some central and western provinces is significantly higher than that. For example, it can be seen from comprehensive highway density = highway mileage / (resident population * total area) that there is a higher space for shortcomings in the future.
In addition, policies such as a strong transportation country and new land, sea and sea routes in the west also support infrastructure construction in the central and western regions.
▼ Take expressways as an example. Comprehensive highway density data for central and western expressway provinces Source: Wind, Guotai Junan Securities Research Government planning: Infrastructure funding sources are expected to improve: Declining capital ratio will help broaden infrastructure financing channels, and special debt quotas will be invested in infrastructureThe proportion is expected to increase.
3. The downward pressure on the economy still exists. In the third quarter, the GDP growth rate fell to 6% for 7 consecutive quarters. The GDP growth rate in 2020 is under pressure and has a bottom line.
The overall manufacturing industry is sluggish. At the same time, given the downward investment in real estate financing income, imports and exports are still uncertain, consumption is still weak, and a sound infrastructure economy will improve.
On November 27, the Ministry of Finance released news that some new special debt reductions of $ 1 trillion in 2020 were issued in advance; at the same time, it was required to immediately restart the special bond quota to specific projects in accordance with regulations, to be issued early and used early to ensure early next year.When it becomes effective, it will ensure the formation of physical workload and the effective promotion of the economy as soon as possible.
▼ In 2019, the local government issued supplementary special debt with significantly higher data sources: Wikipedia, Guotai Junan Securities Research. We believe that the early release of alignment indicates that the central government’s awareness of the economy and infrastructure is a continuation of the spirit of countercyclical adjustment.On the one hand, it also helps to ensure the source of capital for construction, and accelerates the implementation of important infrastructure projects that meet the requirements.
According to the Statistical Bulletin on the Development of the Transportation Industry in 2018, by 2030, the railway target will be 200,000 kilometers open, and the high-speed rail will be 4.
50,000 kilometers, as of the end of 201813.
10,000 km / high-speed rail 2.
90,000 kilometers is still not a small gap.
At present, the total bidding for railway rail transit exceeds 4 trillion yuan, and the demand for the construction period in the last year of the 13th Five-Year Plan is expected.
▼ The rail transport approval in 2018 has been restarted and the transition approval projects have exceeded one trillion. Data source: National Development and Reform Commission’s official website of the Department of Basic Industries, etc., Guotai Junan Securities Research