Sichuan Changhong (600839): Color TV continues to weigh on performance

Sichuan 杭州夜网论坛 Changhong (600839): Color TV continues to weigh on performance

Predict that net profit will decrease by 80% from zero in 2019?
86% of companies announced performance preview: 2019 net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be 45 million yuan?
65 million yuan, changed to 80%?
86%; net profit after deduction is expected to be -4.

37?
-4.

5.7 billion yuan.

The color TV business is expected to break through, leading to results that exceed our expectations.

Points of interest Color TV is expected to significantly slow down performance: 1) Affected by the intensified price competition in the industry, the company’s color TV business in 2019 will cause a significant increase in profit in 2019.

The company’s color TV business has expanded cumulatively in 2018, with revenues increasing by -6% and profit reductions decreased by 1.

1.6 billion, on the edge of breakeven.

2) In an attempt to improve sales, the company adjusted its channels and marketing, resulting in an increase in expenses in 2019.

3) In 2019, the company received a total of 2 subsidies approved by the government.

78 ppm, 1 of which is related to benefits.

97 ppm, asset-related 0.

8.1 billion.

Realization of strength is unreasonable.

Color TV retail demand continues to be weak: 1) China’s color TV market is still sluggish.

According to AVC statistics, the retail volume and retail value of the color TV industry in 2019 are at least -2% and -11%, respectively.

2) The industry’s price competition is still very fierce. The average retail price of the industry is reduced by 9% each year. The online market competition is particularly fierce. The average retail price can replace 14%.

In 2019, the retail value of Xiaomi’s online market increased by 34%, and its share reached 23%, which gradually increased by 6.

4ppt.

3) On Changhong Color Wire, offline retail sales were -5%, -27%, and average retail prices were -16%, -4%.

The company’s average offline retail revenue is -1.

3ppt to 9%, the company’s retail share expansion is mainly affected by the channel adjustment.

The refrigerator market ‘s Meiling ‘s weight is 南京龙凤网 stable: 1) AVC monitoring. In 2019, the refrigerator industry ‘s online and offline retail sales will increase by + 14% and -3%, respectively.

2) The performance of Meiling refrigerators is basically the same as that of the industry. Online and offline retail sales are + 13% and -3% respectively, and the market share remains stable.

Estimates and recommendations Due to lower-than-expected results, we lower our 2019/2020 EPS forecast by 82% / 39% to 0.

01 yuan / 0.

04 yuan, date 2021 EPS forecast 0.

04 yuan.

Maintain Neutral rating and maintain target price of 2.

88 yuan, corresponding to 262x / 67x 2019/2020 price-earnings ratio, there is 2% upside compared to the current consensus.

The company currently corresponds to the 258x / 66x 2019/2020 P / E ratio.

Risks Competition in the color TV market.

Depth-Company-China Railway Construction (601186): Infrastructure Investment Steadily Advances to Lead in Construction

Depth * Company * China Railway Construction (601186): Infrastructure investment steadily promotes iron construction leading to benefit first

The company is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the favorable infrastructure policies of the National Railway Construction Corporation.

At the same time, the company’s extensive layout and expansion of real estate business growth capabilities are expected to enjoy both the acceleration of infrastructure and the double dividend of real estate growth.

The key points of the official rating are favorable for the release of the policy, and the national layout leaders are expected to be released: Since the policy change in July 2018, the targeted reduction of the standards, the targeted reduction of interest rates, the relaxation of the leading housing and enterprise construction financing, and the acceleration of special debt issuance have been implemented.Appeals for improvement have been put on the agenda.

As a nationwide leader, the company’s performance is expected to be significantly released.

The business structure is diversified and the real estate business is expected to expand counter-cyclically: In 2018, the real estate industry has become tighter in funding and the land purchase position is obvious.

The company’s main business scale is huge, and its capital advantage is obvious. With the shrinking of the industry’s leading strategy, the company is fully capable of counter-cyclical increase of land reserves and market share.

Overseas business is advancing steadily, and China-Africa cooperation brings incremental space: The company actively expands the scale of overseas business, and its overseas business revenue accounted for 3% in 2011.

8% steadily increased to 5 in 2017.

6%.

With the further advancement of the “Belt and Road” and the implementation of China-Africa cooperation, China Railway Construction is a Chinese-funded enterprise deeply cultivating Africa, with a high proportion of African business. It will fully benefit from China-Africa cooperation in the future.

The improvement of the performance of the shortcomings catalyzed by the infrastructure construction is highly deterministic: the social financing data in 2019 has significantly improved, the infrastructure shortcomings have been steadily advancing, and the future infrastructure policy is expected to adjust the capital adjustment. The company is expected to be the first to benefit and bring business.Scale-up tolerance.

The acceleration of infrastructure construction has brought about revenue growth; the improvement of orders has brought 上海夜网论坛 about increased profit margins, and the company’s 2019 performance improvement is highly certain.

The current company estimates only 8 times.

It is expected to achieve the expected growth compared with the historical level or the average of industry peers.

It is estimated that the shortcomings of infrastructure construction are advancing steadily, and various businesses are expected to have a high degree of certainty. It is estimated that the company’s revenue will be 7,938 in 2019-2021.

65, 8,486.

14, 8,988.

8.6 billion; net profit attributable to mothers was 218.

53, 239.

49, 259.

7.2 billion; EPS is 1.

61, 1.

76, 1.

91. Maintain the company’s overweight rating.

The main risks facing the rating are that the shortcomings of infrastructure supplementation have fallen short of expectations, and the trade 武汉夜生活网 war has affected the advancement of overseas businesses.

Plum life (600873): 17 years and three minutes of deep processing of corn

Plum life (600873): 17 years and three minutes of deep processing of corn

The deep-cultivated corn has been processed for 17 years, and the advantages of multi-product scale are fully displayed. The Baicheng production base was put into production at the end of 2018. The company officially formed three major production bases in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, Wujiaqu, Xinjiang, and Baicheng, Jilin.

At present, the company has a total MSG content of 70, ranking second in the industry. Following the official commissioning of Baicheng Base, there is currently a substitution of 70 for lysine, ranking first in China; a substitution for threonine capacity of 26, ranking first in China.
  In terms of revenue and gross profit composition, animal nutrition amino acids and food taste optimizing products have become the main sources of company revenue.

  Food taste traits optimized products: supply and demand are good, and price increases bring profit elasticity The top three domestic MSGs are Fufeng Group, Meihua Bio and Ningxia Yipin. The current industry has basically formed oligopolistic metabolites, and the production capacity in 2018 was 133, 70 and42 ounces.

  The three leading players have formed a complete industrial chain through industry competition and huge capital accumulation, forming a high moat, and have obvious industry-leading advantages.

At the same time, China’s monosodium glutamate production capacity accounted for 75% of the world’s total in 2018, and its supply accounted for more than 60% of the world, which means that it has become the world’s largest monosodium glutamate producer and exporter.

  Disodium Nucleotide (I + G) is a new generation of nucleotide food freshener, which can be directly added to food to play a role of freshening, it is called “strong MSG”.

At present, there are three major domestic manufacturers: Xijie, Plum Blossom, and Xinghu Technology. The production capacity is about 2.

5 maximum value, 1 maximum value, 7,500 tons, the proportion of Plum Blossom Biotech’s production capacity in domestic manufacturers is 23.

53%.

  Sullysine and lysine double product leader. The downstream industry is affected by swine fever. Vulnerable lysine. Since entering 2019, the transformation of swine fever has continued to spread, and the downstream feed industry has poor demand.With the joint operation of supply and demand, the price of lysine products continued to weaken, until the current price difference of domestic sulline products was at historically low levels.

Looking forward to the future price trend of lysine, the poor downstream demand brought about by swine fever is difficult to improve in the short term, and the product market is expected to remain weak.

However, in the future, it will continue to reduce the space. The space is very limited. In the future, it is expected that the supply and demand structure brought about by the rebound in demand will improve, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about product prices.

  Based on comprehensive judgment of profit forecast, we believe that the company’s profitability outlook for odorants is maintained at a high level. Although the feed amino acid business is weak, it still has very limited downside. The company’s return to performance in 19 years has been complete.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 12 respectively.

7, 15.

3 and 17.

800 million, corresponding to 12 times, 10 times and 9 times the corresponding PE, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  Risks suggest that the operating rate of MSG 深圳桑拿网 will increase and the price will fall; swine fever will continue, and the demand for amino acids will continue to weaken.

Chongqing Department Store (600729) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Performance Exceeds Expectation, Revenue Ends Under Pressure to Increase Sales Expenses

Chongqing Department Store (600729) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Performance Exceeds Expectation, Revenue Ends Under Pressure to Increase Sales Expenses
In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s revenue decreased by 0 every year.43%, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 9.59% of the first quarter of 2019 achieved operating income of 100.20 trillion, a year of zero reduction.43%, a decrease less than the same decrease 3 in 4Q2018.05%; net profit attributable to mother 4.7.3 billion, which translates into a fully diluted EPS of 1.16 yuan, a decrease of 9 per year.59%, a decrease smaller than the same decrease of 39 in the fourth quarter of 2018.97%; net profit deducted from non-attributed mothers4.61 ppm, a reduction of 10 per year.80%, a decrease smaller than the same decrease of 55 in the fourth quarter of 2018.97%.Performance was lower than expected. Overall gross profit margin decreased by 0.For the 40 averages, the expense ratio increased by 0 during the period.The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the first quarter of 2009 was 18.23%, a decrease of 0 from the same period last year.40 units.Company expenses for the first quarter of 201911.79%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.09 totals, of which sales / management / financial expense ratios are 8 respectively.98% / 2.68% / 0.13%, a change of 0 over the same period last year.89 / -0.79 / -0.01 averages. The income side was under pressure as a whole, and the department store business performance was weak. The reported companies added 3 supermarket stores, 4 auto trade stores, and closed 1 electrical store.The company’s regional department stores have different revenue end points, and the Chongqing / Sichuan / Guizhou / Hubei district department store revenues have changed by -2.98% / -5.54% / 2.86% /-15.2%, dragging down the company’s revenue-side performance.In addition, the gross profit margin of the company’s electrical appliance industry was weak, and the gross profit margin of the electrical appliance industry in Chongqing / Sichuan changed by -1.68 / -3.59 levels, leading to a decline in the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin.Reported investment income of first-tier companies reached 87.78 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.79%, some of the investment income also dragged down the quarterly performance. Downgrade earnings forecast and maintain “Buy” rating. Considering that the company’s profitability has improved, we 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 have reduced our forecast for fully diluted EPS for 19-21 to 2.25/2.41/2.57 yuan (previously 2).41/2.64/2.(RMB 82), considering the expected improvement in operations brought about by the implementation of mixed shareholder reform, we maintain a “Buy” rating. Risk Warning: The development of Internet financial services has not met expectations, and regional competition has intensified.

Poly Real Estate (600048): Achievements in sales performance, outstanding financing advantages of central enterprises continue to highlight

Poly Real Estate (600048): Achievements in sales performance, outstanding financing advantages of central enterprises continue to highlight

Event: The company recently released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved an operating income of 711.

400 million, an increase of 19 a year.

5%, net profit attributable to mother 99.

600 million, an increase of 53 in ten years.

3%, EPS is 0.

84 yuan.

The gross profit margin increased, and the equity ratio of the project increased.

In the first half of the year, the company’s operating income was 711.

200 million, +19 a year.

5%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 99.

600 million, previously +53.

3%; basic profit income is 0.

84 yuan, +52 per year.

8%; gross margin is 39.

8%, an increase of 4.
.

4%; the growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent is significantly higher than the growth rate of operating income.

It mainly comes from the following three points: 1) the high gross profit margin projects are concentrated into the carry-over period; 2) the equity of the carry-over projects during the reporting period is relatively high; 3) the company’s cost control capabilities and management capabilities have improved.

Sales grew steadily, and the value of the launch was abundant.

The company achieved a contracted area of 1636 in the first half of 19 years.

47 Magnum; sales of 2,526 contracts.

The company’s sales volume ranks fourth in the industry; the sales contribution of the first-tier and second-tier cities and the six core city clusters exceeds 75%; the company achieved a start-up scale of 28.94 million square meters in the first half of the year, and has 杭州桑拿洗浴会所 completed 64% of the scale-up plan.The launch in the second half of the year has ample reserve value.

Land enforcement and diversified land expansion models.

In the first half of the year, the company added 8.26 million square meters of floor area ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 45.

3%, the total cost of land acquisition is 5.33 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.

3%, taking land proportion 21 of this kind.

1%, overall tends to be cautious; the average floor price is 6,453 yuan / square meter, accounting for 41 in the same period.

8%, land acquisition costs are relatively stable.

From the perspective of urban energy levels, the first, second, and third- and fourth-tier cities accounted for 78% and 22% of the land acquisition in the first half of the year.

The company has planned a variety of land 北京夜网 development models such as bidding, auctioning, mergers and acquisitions, and adopted a state-owned enterprise platform to integrate high-quality resources.

The financing advantage is obvious and the financial position is stable.

In H1 2019, the company has interest to deny 2709.

900 million US dollars, the comprehensive cost of debt is only 4.

99%, the financing advantage is obvious.

Net aldehyde rate is 76.

6%, -16 from the same period last year.

6 points, asset-liability ratio (excluding advance receipts) 66.

1%, compared with -1 in the same period last year.
7pct, debt ratio has improved significantly.
The debt structure is reasonable, the book cash balance / interest bearing debt within one year is 2.

63 times, short-term debt repayment pressure.

As of H1 2019, the company has received a total of 51 million yuan in bank credit.

With the tightening of the fund policy in the second half of the year, the financing advantages of the company’s merger of central SOE credit will be further highlighted.

Investment suggestion: The company has sufficient land reserves, and its expansion is expected to be positive. The senior management has set the goal of returning to the top three within three years.

In the context of the ever-tightening policy environment, the company as a central enterprise plus a leader, the advantages of financing and land acquisition will become more obvious. Against the background of central enterprise integration, Poly Real Estate as the core real estate development platform of the group, does not rule out continuing to undertake other central enterprises in the futurePossibility of quality resources.

After the integration of Poly Hong Kong was completed to solve the problem of competition in the same industry, the business area and market share were promoted to accelerate.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 2 in 19-21.

01, 2.

44 and 2.

94 yuan, the corresponding PE is 6.

9X, 5.

7X and above 4.

7X with a target price of 16.

62 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

GAC Group (601238): One-month sales are better than the industry expects new car listing

GAC Group (601238): One-month sales are better than the industry expects new car listing

Event: The company released the sales data for January 2020, and the automobile sales of Guangzhou Automobile Group in January 202017.

60,000, at least -15.

9%; automobile production in January was 13.

80,000, at least -24.

3%.

In January, the wholesale sales volume was accompanied by the decline of the industry, and the output was lower than the sales volume.

The China Automobile Association recently released the January auto industry sales, of which 161 were passenger cars in January.

40,000, at least -20.

2%, mainly due to the 2020 Spring Festival holiday in January, the effective working day is only 17 days, about 5 days less than the same period last year.

  In January 2020, GAC Group sold 17 vehicles.

60,000, at 天津夜网 least -15.

9%; sales decline is lower than industry sales decline.

Car production in January was 13.

80,000, at least -24.

3%, contradiction between production and sales, is expected to be mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday in advance and active destocking and other factors.

Autonomous adversity has been increasing, and the sales volume of Guangfeng / Guangben has fallen less than the industry.

In January 2020, Guangfeng / Guangben / Guangzhou independently achieved sales of 6 respectively.

20,000 / 6.

80,000 / 3.

60,000 vehicles, -16 each year.

2% /-15.

2% / + 5.

3%; wide-area autonomous sales are growing against the trend, mainly due to the increase in sales of the main model GS4 after listing.

The sales of Guangfeng and Guangben were lower than that of the industry. Following the launch of 成都桑拿网 Weilanda, Haoying’s production capacity climbed. Guangfeng Guangben’s sales growth rate exceeded the industry average.

Japanese heavy-duty new cars were launched, with autonomous marginal improvement and maintaining a “buy” level.

The current Guangben main SUV new car Haoying was launched at the end of last year and is currently in the ramp-up period of production capacity; the next-generation Fit is expected to be listed in 2020. Guangfeng’s main SUV model Weilanda is currently accepting reservations and is expected to be officially launched in the first quarter.
Subsequent Japanese heavy-duty new cars were launched, and the cycle of Japanese new cars continued.

  In terms of autonomy, the company’s inventory has returned to a reasonable level. The sales of the main model GS4 products have increased rapidly after the listing. The recycling terminal discounts have improved the profitability of bicycles. The listing of new vehicles such as GS4 COUPE and GS8S is expected to continue to boost and stimulate independent sales.

In terms of Guangfike, the most difficult time has passed. The current channel has returned to a benign state, and the margins of subsequent progress have improved.

We have adjusted the company’s profit forecast and expect the company to return to its parent net profit 81/2019/2020/2021.

3/103.

5/117.

600 million, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: the industry is picking up less than expected; new car sales are not as good as expected;

Polyfluoro (002407): Increase in annual asset impairment ratio exceeds expectations

Polyfluoro (002407): Increase in annual asset impairment ratio exceeds expectations

Obviously, the provision for impairment loss of the receivables of Zhidou was clearly calculated. The 2018 annual report was lower than expected. On April 20, the company released the 2018 annual report, and the company achieved revenue of 39 in 2018.

1.3 billion, +4 a year.

74%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

66 ppm, ten years -74.

30%; net profit after deduction is -0.

100 million, ten years-105%.

Due to the customer’s knowledge that the bean company is in the restructuring stage and its business operations are subject to uncertainty, the company made a provision for impairment of accounts receivable of the intellectual bean business at a 50% ratio, totaling approximately 1.

US $ 6.2 billion, which caused the company’s 2018 net profit to expand more than we expected.

Looking ahead to 2019, we believe that demand has grown and released, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) is expected to continue to rise steadily.

Considering that the company’s asset impairment pressure is still underway, we expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to its parent of approximately 3 in 2019-21.

2/4.

35/5.

26 trillion, downgraded to “overweight” level.

The company’s gross profit margin has increased, and the expense ratio and asset impairment ratio increased. The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was about 25.

26%, ten years +1.

84pct, we believe that it mainly benefits from the cost advantage brought by the steady expansion of the company’s fluoride salt business.

The company’s 2018 expense ratio is 21.

86%, +4 per year.

72pct, of which the selling expense ratio is 4.

25%, ten years +0.

83 points; affected by employee compensation, budget cost, etc., the management expense ratio reaches 11.

47%, ten years +2.

74pct; affected by interest expenses, the financial expense ratio reaches 2.

8% +0 per year.

89pct; R & D expense ratio 3.

34%, ten years +0.

26 points.

The company’s asset impairment loss ratio in 2018 reached 4.

56%, ten years +2.

85pct, mainly due to the company’s provision of 50% of the receivables depreciation of bean receivables.

Considering the decline of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, Zhidou is still in the restructuring stage, and its business operations are uncertain. We believe that the company’s remaining receivables still have the risk 淡水桑拿网 of impairment.

Demand growth and cost support, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices are expected to continue to pick up new energy vehicle power battery demand, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices are expected to pick up.

According to a report from Lithium Power Engineering in January 2019, domestic battery leaders Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Funeng Technology have expansion needs. At the same time, foreign battery manufacturers including Panasonic, LG Chemical, SKI and Samsung are all overweighting the Chinese marketCapacity layout.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to March 2019 reached 29.

90,000 vehicles, +109 a year.

7%.

We think the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be good, and the company’s expansion of production and demand continues. We expect that new energy vehicle sales in 2019 are expected to reach 1.66 million units, each time +30.

7% will significantly increase the installed capacity of power batteries and the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate.Emissions released by total demand growth, we predict that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2019 may remain stable and increase.

Asset impairment pressure still exists, downgrade to “overweight” rating. We believe that the company’s traditional fluoride salt business is expected to continue to benefit from supply-side reforms and prices remain high; lithium hexafluorophosphate is supported by costs and demand, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices are conducive to continued recoveryTo improve company performance.

As the company knows that there is still pressure on the receivables impairment of the receivables business, we expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-21.

2/4.

35/5.

2.6 billion (down 14 in 19/20).

44% / 18.

69%), corresponding to EPS of about 0.

47/0.

64/0.

77 yuan.

The average PE of comparable companies in the same industry in 2019 is about 34 times. The company’s 6F business has a cost advantage. If the 6F price rebound has resonance elasticity to the company’s performance, it will give the company 37-38 times PE valuation in 2019, corresponding to a target price range of 17.

39-17.

86 yuan, considering asset impairment pressure still exists, downgraded to “overweight” level.

Risk warning: the spread between the upstream and downstream of the fluoride salt business is narrowing; sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; the company’s business development is less than expected, and the impairment loss of accounts receivable increases.

Tunnel Shares (600820) Tracking Report: Improved Prosperity of Rail Transit Industry Benefits Yangtze River Delta Integration Strategy

Tunnel Shares (600820) Tracking Report: Improved Prosperity of Rail Transit Industry Benefits Yangtze River Delta Integration Strategy
Leader in tunnel engineering in domestic high-quality buildings: The company is the first listed company in the infrastructure sector in China. Its main business includes infrastructure construction / design / investment / operation. It has core technical advantages in the field of tunnel / railway construction, including independent research and development of classified shields.The construction machinery and other equipment have a market share of about 60% in the country’s ultra-large diameter tunnels and a construction market share of about 76% in Shanghai’s cross-river tunnels. Rail transit boom continues to improve, with a high proportion of increasing demand in East China: the pace of conversion, development and reform commissions approving rail transit 深圳桑拿网 projects is accelerating, rail transit industry’s prosperity improvement is highly certain, rail transit construction investment will continue to grow rapidly, and calculations show that from 2018 to 2020, nationwideRail transportation investment Cagr is about 24%; the continuous promotion of the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy will continue to release the infrastructure needs in East China. In 2018-2022, the planned additional route mileage in East China is 2,030 kilometers, accounting for 1/3 of the country’s new mileage. One of the regional infrastructure leaders in Shanghai, benefiting from the integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta: The company’s main revenue comes from rail transit, municipal, road engineering business, and deeply cultivates Shanghai and surrounding provinces and cities. As a national tunnel engineering leader, one of the Shanghai regional rail transit leaders, ChangThe triangle integration strategy will deeply benefit the company. It is expected that in 2019, the new breakthrough unit price of road engineering will reverse the decline, the new breakthrough unit price of municipal engineering will grow steadily, and the order reserve will gradually be consolidated. It is expected that the company will usher in a turning point of order rebound. The high probability of the performance incremental incentive plan will effectively boost the consolidation enthusiasm: the company passed the performance incremental incentive plan at the end of 2018, and the performance reached the specified conditions in 2018-2020. After the conditions are met, the subject’s incentive object will receive an earlier large amount of incentives.With reference to past performance, we believe that the 2018 incentive plan will be realized with a high probability. The incentive plan will have an incentive volume or accessibility of 49,600-62 million yuan. Considering that the number of incentive objects is limited, the per capita incentive amount is considerable, which will form an effective incentive for the company’s reorganization. Maintain “Overweight” rating: We expect the company’s 2018E-2020E EPS to be 0 respectively.70/0.79/0.85 yuan.With reference to comparable companies’ PB values in 2019, the median is 1.2 times, 1.1 times.The company’s current PE (TTM) and PB averages are close to the lowest point of 5; at the same time, considering the high proportion of the company’s rail transit business, the company, as one of the domestic tunnel construction leaders and one of the eastern rail transit leaders, will intensively benefit from in-depth rail transit projects.The integration strategy of the Yangtze River Delta continued to advance, and the company’s estimated level improved.We give the company a PB 1 target for 2019.1x, cut target price to 8.14 yuan (previous value was 9.(RMB 02, lowered due to lower market risk appetite) and maintain the “overweight” rating. Risk warning: Infrastructure investment is less than expected; rail transit project approval reset; new crack orders are less than expected; raw material price increase risk; accounts receivable risk, etc.

Jidong Cement (000401) Company Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise, Optimistic on Company Performance Elasticity

Jidong Cement (000401) Company Annual Report Comments: Volume and Price Rise, Optimistic on Company Performance Elasticity

Investment highlights: 淡水桑拿网 Event: The company recently announced its 2018 annual report, and the company achieved operating income of approximately 308 in 2018.

4.9 billion, an annual increase of about 22.

57%, net profit attributable to mother is about 14.

8.3 billion, an increase of about 194 in ten years.

09%; net profit after deducting non-attribution is about 11.

950,000 yuan, an increase of 1378 in ten years.

60%; EPS is about 1.

101 yuan / share; Q4 achieved revenue of about 87 in a single quarter.

30 ppm, an increase of about 46 in ten years.

97%, net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter is about 0.

6.9 billion yuan (expected last year 2).

09 billion); the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

Opinion: Both volume and price have risen, and net profit per ton has risen to the highest level in nearly 8 years.

1) The company’s cement clinker sales in 2018 were about 9664, with an annual increase of about 5.

6%, higher than the national 3.

0%, but lower than 8 in North China.

5%; Q4 2018 single quarter sales of 2689 years, a year-on-year increase of 11%.

4%.

2) We estimate that the company’s full-caliber ton revenue in 2018 will be about 319 yuan / ton, and will gradually increase by about 44 yuan / ton, of which Q4 ton revenue will be about 325 yuan / ton, which will gradually increase by about 79 yuan / ton; in 2018, the company’s gross profit per ton will be about 98RMB / ton, temporarily increased by about 24 yuan / ton, of which the gross profit of Q4 tons is about 98 yuan / ton, each time it is increased by about 31 yuan / ton; in 2018, the company’s net profit per ton was about 26 yuan / ton, until it was increased by about 16 yuan / ton.Net profit per ton is already at its highest level since 2011.

Financial expenses continued to improve, and management and sales expenses had room to fall.

Due to the increase in sales, the company’s ton financial expenses continued to improve in 2018, and decreased by 0 in 2018.

6 yuan / ton to 13.

1 yuan / ton; we believe that the company’s 2018 ton management fee increased by 2 due to the increase in shutdown costs and maintenance costs due to the national error peak production policy.

8 yuan / ton to 37.

2 yuan / ton (including research and development costs); due to the increase in transportation and handling costs, the company’s ton sales cost in 2018 increased by about 1.

1 yuan / ton to 11.

2 yuan / ton.

The overall cost of the company is high, and there is room for decline in the future.

The reorganization plan was approved by the CSRC, and the synergy between Jinyu Group and Jidong Cement gradually improved.

The company and the indirect shareholder Jinye Group jointly set up a joint venture company. After the establishment of the company, the company has a controlling stake in the joint venture company, becoming the Jinye and Jidong cement asset listing platform. We expect the synergies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, and pricing power will graduallyExpect further improvement.

Give a “first-tier market” rating.

The company has a large market share in North China, and the ton expense may decrease after the completion of the integration of the cement assets with Jinyu Group. Due to the replacement of net profit of ton, the performance is flexible.

We expect the company’s EPS to be about 1 in 2019-2021.

51, 1.

69, 1.

81 yuan per share, giving the company PE 12 in 2019?
15 times, reasonable value range 18.

12?twenty two.

65 yuan.
risk warning.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional boom picked up more than expected; coal prices rose more than expected.

China Automotive Research (601965) Company Dynamics Comment: First-quarter results exceed expectations but consistently optimistic about its long-term value

China Automotive Research (601965) Company Dynamics Comment: First-quarter results exceed expectations but consistently optimistic about its long-term value

Core point of view events: China Automobile Research recently released the first quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved total operating income of 5 in the first quarter of 2019.

01 billion, down 22 a year.

33%, achieve net profit attributable to mother 0.

94 ppm, an increase of ten years8.

43%, the net profit of non-attributed mothers was reduced to 0.

90 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

73%.

  Parent company statement: The parent company realized operating income in the first quarter of 20192.

08 billion, down 3 every year.

37%, achieving a net profit of 0.

8.3 billion, down 7 a year.

51%.

  We have the following comments: From the perspective of revenue, the company’s performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations and was mainly dragged down by the special vehicle business.

In the first quarter of 19th, the company’s low gross profit margin (less than 5%) of the large-scale negative growth of the special vehicle business income led to the company’s total revenue receipts.

33%.

More than 70% of the company’s special vehicle business income in 18 years came from chassis direct sales, and the rest was car modification.

China ‘s heavy truck chassis sales increased by 80 in the first quarter of 2018.

1%, negative growth of 5 in the first quarter of 19.

5%.

The special vehicle business of Auto Research has accompanied the development of the industry. In the first quarter of 19, the negative growth rate of special vehicle business revenue exceeded 30%, and the special vehicle business revenue accounted for 49%.

5% (2018), so the performance of the company’s revenue in the first quarter exceeded expectations was mainly dragged by the special vehicle business.

  The revenue of the technical service business in the first quarter of 19 was basically the same as that in the same period of 18 years, which was lower than market expectations, but there were specific reasons.

From the parent company statement, we can see that the parent company realized operating income in the first quarter of 20192.

08 billion, down 3 every year.

37%.

It was previously thought that the national five and six national stimulus will stimulate the company’s engine emissions testing business volume. The company’s technical service business revenue growth rate should be higher in the first quarter, but the parent 杭州桑拿网 company’s statement shows that technical service revenue is basically flat with last year.

The main reason is that the testing cycle of many testing projects in China VI is longer than that in China V. The income settlement time of many projects is just after the first quarter of 19th.

  From the perspective of the profit side, due to the decline in the proportion of low-margin special-purpose vehicle business, the company’s comprehensive gross margin and net profit margin have increased significantly, and its profit has increased positively under the negative growth of revenue.

  The gross profit margin for 2019Q1 was 30.

24%, an increase of 6 over the same period last year.

0pct, net interest rate is 19.

04%, an increase of 5 over the same period last year.

3 points.

This increase does not reflect a substantial change in its profitability, but it is only due to the high proportion of revenue from the special vehicle business 49.

5% (2018), gross profit margin decreased by 5%, and the special vehicle business negative growth of more than 30% in 19Q1 led to an increase in comprehensive gross profit margin and net profit margin.

  Continue to be optimistic about the company’s growth in 19-20 years. The main sources of performance growth are the following three points: ① The growth of the national engine inspection business will continue at least until 2020.

Starting from July 1, 2019, only some regions require light gasoline vehicles to meet the National Sixth Standard, and it will be implemented nationwide on July 1, 2020.

The company ‘s National Six engine emissions testing began in the second half of 2018. It is expected that some representative products of OEMs in 19 years will meet National Six standards, and more products will be converted to National Six standards in 2020.Therefore, the business volume of the national six engine inspection in 18/19/20 will continue to increase. Do not worry about the problem of unsustainable orders after the outbreak of 19 years. The growth of the national six engine inspection business can continue at least until 2020.

  ② The rapid growth of the company’s new energy vehicle-related business will also promote the company’s performance.

The company’s technical service revenue from new energy vehicle business has accounted for more than 20% (technical service revenue from new energy vehicles in 2017 has reached 200 million yuan), and 19 and 20 years are just foreign joint venture car companies andTwo years after the car models of the new power generation are concentrated in the market, there will be a blowout increase in the types of new energy vehicles.

  ③ The company’s two largest projects, the wind tunnel laboratory and the intelligent network integrated test track, were put into operation in 19 and 20 respectively.

The wind tunnel laboratory and the intelligent network integrated comprehensive test track project are both very scarce capacity, and demand and profitability are very guaranteed.

  The company’s annual report clearly proposes a mix of all method reforms, an orderly exit from non-strategic industries, innovative incentive distribution mechanisms, a multi-pronged approach, comprehensive improvement of the governance structure, and enhanced profitability.

The company prepares for the system to carry out mixed ownership reform to achieve diversification, and then it may be possible to re-excellent private capital; guide the gathering of high-quality resources to strategic industries (intelligent connected car testing and the construction of a data platform for the four major indexes, etc.);Strategic industries (possibly divesting some of the manufacturing business assets with extremely low profit margins); innovative incentive allocation mechanisms, establishing multiple incentive modes such as job value, fair incentives (the company has reduced some measures in 18 years: equity incentives, industrialized manufacturing businessThe three sectors have dated professional managers, technical service businesses to build new sales teams, etc.).

  Investment suggestion: The company is an excellent target with growth attributes that doubles in volume and price + Davis double-click, and is less affected by the car cycle.

In the short-to-medium term, the company has benefited from the national emission standards of five to six. The number of electric vehicle models has increased significantly in recent years and the rapid development of connected smart cars.

From a long-term perspective, the company benefits from the increase in R & D spending of Chinese auto companies.

Increasing competition between manufacturers, shortening the replacement cycle, speeding up the introduction of new cars, increasing the technological content of auto consumption upgrades, and reverse development to forward development are driving cars to increase research and development expenditures, which provides a good track for China Automotive Research’s growth.

  It is conservatively estimated that the company’s total revenue for 2019-2021 will be 31 in turn.

26, 35.

88, 40.

02 trillion, the growth rate is 13 in turn.

35%, 14.

77%, 11.

55%, the net profit attributable to mother is 4 in turn.

95, 6.

16, 7.

1.6 billion, with a growth rate of 22 in turn.

7%, 24.

6%, 16.

1%, the current market value is 78.

9 trillion, corresponding to PE in order of 15.

9, 12.

8, 11.

0 times, corresponding to 19 years of dividend placement3.

8%.

Taking into account the current market risk appetite, the company’s industry and the company’s own fundamentals, the company is given a reasonable estimate of 25 times the PE in 2019, with a 19-year target price of 12.

76 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” level.

  Risk reminders: ① the progress of the National Six Standards has fallen short of expectations; ② the popularity of intelligent connected cars has fallen short of expectations; ③ the growth of car sales has fallen short of expectations;