LPR has not changed in March, and the next wave of interest rate cuts is expected to be on the road

LPR has not changed in March, and the next wave of interest rate cuts is expected to be on the road
There will certainly be an up-to-date quote for the LPR (Loan Market Quoted Interest Rate) that is likely to offset the bank ‘s debt situation and “make profit” expectations.According to the interbank lending center announced on March 20, the 1-year LPR is 4.05%, LPR is over 5 years.75%, which remained unchanged from the last quotation.In this week’s directional downgrade landing, the LPR market remains unchanged, making others feel slightly more than expected.However, in the February 1-year period, LPRs with a period of more than 5 years have “double-dropped” once, causing people to believe that the situation of internal rework and resumption of production has improved significantly, and the economy itself has recovered faster. The current urgency of lowering LPR again seems notBig.In addition, 150 trillion stock loans will be linked to LPR from March. If the interest rate of loans is continuously lowered, it will also make the banks unable to eat up.One way to help banks further reduce the interest rate to the real economy, while not overburdening them, is to cut interest rates temporarily.Especially in the current environment where more than 20 countries around the world have successively cut interest rates to “save the market”, many target people believe that the monetary and monetary policy space has been opened, and there are subsequent interest rate cuts, and the possibility of a comprehensive rate reduction and even precipitation rate adjustment, but it still exceeds the strongThe stimulus policy is expected to release the GDP monetary policy more precisely and more moderately.Why did LPR “walk in place” in March?The Air Force, with a one-year term and an LPR of more than five years, had a “double drop” in February.Among them, the 1-year LPR fell by 10 basis points to 4.05%, LPR over 5 years fell by 5 basis points to 4.75%.”Slightly beyond expectations” is a large number of opponents’ evaluation of the March LPR market unchanged, because the 550 billion US dollar targeted downgrade has just landed this week.Wen Bin, the chief official of China Minsheng Bank, stated that through the early-year and March 16 directional reduction and superposition, coupled with the 500 billion yuan re-loan rediscount amount, the interest rate for small re-lending to support agriculture and agriculture was reduced.The 25 digits are all effective in reducing bank costs, but they are not reflected in LPR quotes.LPR-linked MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation accounts for a relatively low proportion of the funding source of the banking system. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire debt structure of the bank, MLF and RRR cuts are relatively limited to the reduction of bank costs.However, after the RRR cut in January this year, the LPR interest rate has not been adjusted, and since the quotation mechanism reform in August last year, LPR has not recorded a record of two consecutive months of decline.Meng Xiangjuan, chief fixed income analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, believes that LPR has not been lowered slightly below market expectations, but considers that it has lowered 10 basis points since the beginning of the year, and at the same time has alternately lowered the target RRR, liquidity is loose, short-term monetary policy is expected to temporarily increaseEntities are mainly cohesive.Judging from the performance of the bond and equity markets today, they have been affected too much.Speaking of the reduction of LPR in February, it was in the context of reverse repurchase, interest rates of policy tools such as MLF, and the domestic epidemic situation was at the most severe moment.Tao Jin, a senior expert at Suning Financial Research Institute, told reporters that the incidence of disease is well under control at this stage, the situation of resuming work and resuming production has improved significantly, and the speed of economic recovery has accelerated at the same time, and the urgency of LPR reduction seems not great.However, under the long-term downward pressure of the economy, LPR will remain unchanged temporarily and will increase the probability of future interest rate cuts.Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Digital Economics Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, also mentioned that the further downturn of LPR at this stage has limited impact on the market, but it will intensify the pressure on capital costs of commercial banks, because the formal conversion will begin on March 1 this year.The stock floating rate loan pricing benchmark is to convert the interest rate pricing method stipulated in the original contract to LPR as the pricing benchmark plus points. The current market stock interest rate scale is about 15 billion yuan. LPR conversion takes time, and the marginal utility of the policy will be weakened when the LPR is readjusted.The policy effect on the real economy will be more obvious when the commercial bank ‘s interest rate anchoring work has more progress and then guide the LPR downlink.The psychological impact on home buyers is tense. The 150 trillion stock loan that has been anchored since March also includes many people paying “big head” mortgages every month.Based on 1 million mortgages and equal principal and interest repayment for 30 years, the LPR over 5 years will fall by 5 basis points, and the monthly payment will be reduced by 31 yuan.Pan Helin believes that the current interest rate anchoring work of commercial banks is parallel anchoring, otherwise the previous loan interest rate is 6%, and the LPR over 4 years is 4.75%, then it becomes (4.75 + 1.25%), which means that the interest rate has not changed.The conversion work began on March 1, and after more progress was made in the anchoring work, the effect of lowering LPR on the real economy was better, so the current impact of LPR reduction on the market is limited, especially for stocks.The new loans have been linked to LPR since October last year.Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters that other interest rate cuts have an impact on the actual cost of home purchases and have a huge psychological impact on them.Interest rate cuts and quasi-rate cuts will be considered by home buyers as a slogan for buying a house. Without a rate cut, this effect will be eliminated.Especially when the interest rate was cut in recent overseas competitions, the domestic choice of “do not move” is definitely bad news for the truth. In the case of a gradual recovery of the market, the interest rate cut will fail to affect the confidence of real estate buyers.In the view of Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, although the LPR interest rate itself has not been adjusted, it is expected that the recent actual mortgage interest rates of commercial banks across the country will be reduced.Some military commercial banks have received external attention to reduce the down payment ratio, and the adjustment of the down payment policy is facing some resistance.Therefore, as far as the current focus of commercial banks is concerned, the direction of reducing loan interest rates or recent adjustments.Such adjustments benefit both home buyers ‘mortgage loans and developers’ development loans, and generally help to reduce the corresponding costs of home buyers and housing companies.Interest rate cuts and comprehensive RRR cuts are expected to be “on the road” The current new coronary pneumonia epidemic is rampant overseas. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the economy, since early March, more than 20 countries such as the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Egypt have announced interest rate cutsIn many countries, asset purchases are also carried out simultaneously.Although MLF and LPR have not declined in the latest quotation, the reverse repurchase operation has been suspended for 24 consecutive trading days, but in the global interest rate cuts, relevant people generally said that the gradual size of the monetary policy space, interest rate cuts and comprehensive RRR cuts are expected to “on the way”.Tao Jin said that in recent years, China’s monetary policy has been reduced by the impact of the global interest rate cuts, and has maintained constant policy determination and timely determination for a long time.As the wave of interest rate cuts further strikes, China is likely to be the only major country in the world that insists on resisting negative interest rates. It is also more obvious that China ‘s monetary policy has been decoupled from other countries to a certain extent, but it also means whether it is from the interest rate level or the reserve rate.In terms of aspects, developing countries have a lot of room for monetary policy.Judging from domestic factors that affect whether interest rates are cut or not, it has always been a major constraint. The CPI for 2 months is still above 5%.Wen Bin said that if the trend overcomes the tail-lifting factor and the structural factors of food price increase, the gradual level will remain relatively high.Therefore, during the transition period, the increase in food prices fell back, and the level gradually increased further. The room for monetary policy in various countries still exists. You can further reduce the standard and interest rate, which can lead to a steady decline in market interest rates, and more importantly, reduce the financing cost of the real economy.In terms of the pace and intensity of policy implementation, Pan and Lin believe that compared with the one-time flooding of the United States, the release of multiple monetary policies is more precise and the implementation of the monetary policy is more moderate, and the subsequent monetary policy space penetrates.Initially, it will continue to further reduce the financing cost of the real economy while maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The future monetary policies that can be adopted include targeted or comprehensive RRR cuts, OMO interest rate cuts, MLF and TMLF operations, etc.Optimizing the “three-grade, two-excellent” deposit reserve ratio framework, it is expected that there will be a targeted or comprehensive RRR cut in the second quarter to enhance the credit availability of commercial banks.In addition, after the progress of the commercial bank loan interest rate replacement anchor work progress, the extension in the second half of the year may expand and guide the downward speed of LPR and effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy.It may also be possible to lower the deposit interest rate to lower the budget funds. Recently, it has clearly put forward requirements for a significant reduction in future loan interest rates, guiding the banking system to make appropriate profits to the real economy and reducing corporate financing costs.In this context, at least the discussion on whether to lower the benchmark interest rate is also very lively.Meng Xiangjuan said that in view of the reduction in the debt end of financial institutions, it is still possible to reduce the deposit interest rate in order to guide the financing cost of the real economy downward.Tao Jin believes that in the long run, the basis for the continued reduction in LPR is the reduction of the benchmark deposit rate that represents a larger cost reduction. At the same time, the market-oriented reform of deposits will continue to advance, and the reduction of deposit interest rates should also be market-basedIt is carried out through market means under the reform framework.Wen Bin analyzed that corporate and residential deposits accounted for more than 60% of bank debt. If you want to reduce the cost of physical financing, then bank resistance costs should be reduced. Lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits is the first choice. To reduce costs through banks, you can use LPRThe new mechanism continues to guide LPR down.Pan Helin also believes that the possibility of reducing the burden on banks by lowering the deposit interest rate is very large. At present, the spreads of commercial banks have continued to shrink. The introduction of LPR quotations has not been increased and reduced, which also shows that commercial banks are under pressure to narrow the net interest margin.Reluctant to lower the quoted interest rate anymore. In the future, relevant policies will gradually be introduced to reduce the pressure on commercial banks’ capital costs.Appropriately lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits to ease the pressure of narrowing the net interest margin of commercial banks, provide space for banks to reduce loan interest rates, and promote a marked decline in LPR quotations.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao Editor Xu Chao Li Weijia Proofreading Li Shihui

Sports Morning News: Su Bingtian advances, Chinese women’s volleyball team is in the spotlight

Sports Morning News: Su Bingtian advances, Chinese women’s volleyball team is in the spotlight
[Track and Field]Su Bingtian advanced to the 100-meter semi-finals of the World Championships.The 2019 Doha Athletics World Championships men ‘s 100-meter preliminaries ended last night. Chinese sprinter Su Bingtian won the group fifth with a score of 10 seconds 21. He ranked 22nd in the preliminary round and advanced to the semifinals.Another Chinese player, Xie Zhenye, finished third in the group with a score of 10 seconds and 19, and also made it to the semifinals.[Women’s Volleyball]The Chinese team won 9 consecutive victories in the World Cup.Figure / Chinese women’s volleyball team micro-women’s volleyball World Cup yesterday held a third stage of the competition in Osaka, the Chinese women’s volleyball team beat the Dutch women’s volleyball team 3-1, won the World Cup 9 consecutive wins, Zhu Ting scored the team’s highest 22 points.Since the US team beat Russia 3-2, it means that the Chinese women’s volleyball team can win the championship one round ahead as long as they defeat Serbia in this afternoon’s game.[Declaration]FIFA responded to the “best” vote against the news that the Egyptian Football Association and Nicaragua captain questioned the vote of Mr. World Football. FIFA issued a statement on the official website. They said that the vote was correct and there was no problem. The voting procedures were all decided byIndependent observer-PricewaterhouseCoopers under the supervision and control.[New weather]Zaka was appointed as the new captain of Arsenal. Arsenal club coach Emery announced last night that the team midfielder Zaka was officially appointed as the new captain. The candidates for the vice captain were Obameyan and Bellerin., Lacazette and Ozil.Emery said that this decision is through the team’s internal player voting results, Arsenal will stage a “Double Red Club” with Manchester United in the early morning of October 2, Beijing time.Beijing News editor Zhang Yunfeng proofreading Guo Li